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Saturday, December 10, 2005

Looking at Fulmer under RW Rankings

Here's a look at Fulmer's rankings as Head Coach. Overall, the averages are excellent.

He has had some great seasons. What these numbers fail to show is how close UT was to earning multiple MNCs during his early years and including 2001.

Now, take a look at the split before and after the MNC in 1998.This is where things start to get a bit uglier. You can see the huge difference in the variation between CPF1 and CPF2. CPF1 was a consistent high performer. CPF2 is erratic and unpredictable. The red lines indicate the range of expected values for future seasons. As you can see, CPF1 expected a 1-20 ranking. CPF 2 expects a 1-71 ranking.

This is where the upward trend is truly visible. It would have been near impossible for CPF to stay where he was the first 6 or 7 years, but he is now performing below a level that is acceptable by one of the highest paid men in college football. 2006 should be an interesting season.

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